Survivor S44E08: Don't Get Cocky, Kid

© CBS

A successul strategy leads to the season's first true blindside.
by Jeremy Fogelman

In the latest episode of Survivor we finally get a successful counter-idol play, the first in quite a while. At this point we have a 3-3-4 split remainder of the original tribe counts, but now? It’s completely even in a season where original tribemates seem to be consistently allying with each other. How long that lasts is anyone’s guess in the audience, but it’s a bit of an old school vibe in the modern version of the game.

The breakdown of those tribes is Yam Yam/Carson/Carolyn from Tika as the most interesting trio of players, Danny/Heidi/Frannie from Soka as the twist initiators, and Lauren/Kane/Jaime/Brandon from Ratu as the former majority players. But a majority alliance with just one extra player is a precarious one and it’s always a potential target to a simple vote switch up -- or an idol correctly played.

Brandon is only really targeted by Heidi because Ratu is the clear target and he’s the most obviously athletic of that quartet. The plan (which is a smart one) is to have Danny play his idol on Frannie, the obvious target now that her former ally/partner Matt is gone. They technically don’t need the Tika trio’s help for their play, but the numbers help make sure something like a vote split doesn’t mess up the plan.

© CBS

Lauren wins the muddy immunity challenge but I don’t think she was really at any risk -- it’s a feather in her cap that may or may not matter in the long run. It was a little funny and a little cringey when Carolyn got stuck in the net in the immunity challenge, mainly because it’s exactly the sort of thing I’d have predicted to happen. But the oddly savvy mix of Yam Yam, Carolyn, and Carson (to a lesser extent) have become perhaps the most engaging group on this season, and it really needs them.

When Carson (who is trying to please everyone) reveals to Danny that Heidi let both him and Yam Yam know about the plan, Danny points out to us that Yam Yam is actually a capable player. Which we already knew about, of course, both he and Carolyn are “surprisingly” aware of the game. Carolyn just isn’t great at the social part of the game, while Yam Yam is good at that part too.

It’s not clear how much Carolyn knows or not about the plan, but she’s the only one that votes with the Soka trio against Brandon -- and we know Carson and Yam Yam knew about the plan. So them voting against Frannie was likely also part of the plan to pretend they didn’t know about the plan (I would assume).

© CBS

There’s something a bit satisfying about a successful idol blindside, and it doesn’t hurt that the show has invested us far more emotionally in Frannie than Brandon so it’s easier to know who to root for in that exchange. It’s still a bit too early to determine any frontrunners, but Danny is showing himself visibly as a player at least, so he’s someone to watch out for.

It’s otherwise hard to tell -- Frannie has Matt’s vote if she makes it to the final three, but otherwise it feels pretty up for grabs so far. I’m hoping the rest of the season includes more interesting, risky play like this episode, and less the milquetoast stuff we’ve tended to see instead.

Next time on Survivor, Kane wakes up, and people are getting shook up.